The difference between passenger and cargo profitability is in the capacity dynamics. Traditionally, capacity increase would lead to lower pricing, yet with larger cargo airlines controlling bulk of market capacity and pricing the pricing is expected to remain high.

Freighter demand in all sectors is exceeding supply, in spite of ramp up of conversion activities of passenger airliners and production of new freighters from OEM supply chains. Airlines with long haul platforms such as Boeing 767, 777 & 777, Airbus A330 & A340 are repurposing for internal freight requirements as well as selling excess airframes to third parties for subsequent conversion to meet current market demand.

The Boeing Company expects long term air freight market to require fleet growth of more than 60% from today through 2039. This translates to 1,270 additional standard body units (<45 tonnes), 1,140 medium to widebody units (40-80 tonnes) and 850 large capacity units (>80 tonnes) required between now and 2039. Replacement capacity remains an issue as well and is illustrated by the conversion backlog world-wide for Boeing and Airbus passenger airliners as total 2039 freight requirements in all segments are estimated at 3,260 units.

Forecasts from OEMs show 1,180 of total units will be needed by 2039 for the replacement of aging aircraft ending their useful lifespans.